The UEFA Nations League (UNL) group stage is nearing its conclusion, and the stakes are higher than ever before. With the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup just around the corner, the Nations League has taken on a new significance as it will now impact the qualifying draw for the tournament.
One of the most anticipated matches of the Nations League is the France vs Israel clash, which took place on Thursday. France, under the guidance of Didier Deschamps, is preparing for a crucial game against Israel as they aim to maintain their position at the top of League A Group 1. Deschamps, however, has taken issue with questions regarding the absence of star player Kylian Mbappe from the squad.
Mbappe’s absence is just one of the many factors influencing the Nations League. The new format for 2024-25 has seen an increase in the number of teams making it to the knockout stages, along with the introduction of promotion/relegation playoffs. This means that the final positions in the Nations League will now have a direct impact on the draw for the 2026 World Cup qualifiers.
In League A, the top two teams from each of the four groups will advance to the quarterfinals, which will be played in March. The winners of these ties will then compete in the finals, with the one-legged semifinals and final scheduled for June. The winners of League B and C will be automatically promoted to the next higher league, while the bottom teams in League A and B will be relegated.
For countries relegated from League A, there is some solace in the fact that being in League B for the 2026 Nations League will put them in a better position to claim a playoff spot for Euro 2028. The winners of the two League D groups will also be promoted, while the bottom two teams in League C will be relegated.
The promotion/relegation playoffs are a new addition to the Nations League format. Teams finishing third in League A will face second-placed nations from League B in two-legged ties, with the winners advancing to the higher league. Similarly, third-placed teams in League B will play against second-placed teams in League C.
The implications of the Nations League extend beyond just promotion and relegation. The World Cup qualifying draw, which is scheduled for December 13, will take into account the Nations League results. FIFA has given UEFA permission to place all eight UNL quarterfinalists in Pot 1 of the World Cup draw. This means that finishing in the top two of League A could provide a more favorable route to the 2026 World Cup.
Pot 1 will consist of 12 nations, with the remaining spots being filled by the four countries with the best FIFA World Ranking who are not already seeded. England, currently ranked fourth in the world, is guaranteed a spot in Pot 1 despite being in League B for this edition of the Nations League.
The Nations League results will also impact the World Cup playoffs. There are 16 playoff spots available, with four of them reserved for the best UNL group winners who do not finish in the top two of a World Cup group. This means that winning a League B group could almost certainly guarantee a World Cup playoff spot, while being one of the best League C group winners offers a good chance as well.
As the Nations League playoffs do not take place until March 2026, eight of the 12 World Cup groups will not know their full lineup until then. This adds another layer of complexity to the qualifying process.
In League A Group 1, Portugal needs just one point to secure a place in the quarterfinals, while Scotland faces an uphill struggle to avoid relegation to League B. Croatia has the superior head-to-head record and can book a top-two slot with a draw against Scotland on Friday. Poland, meanwhile, could face a relegation playoff if they fail to secure a top-two finish.
Israel drew with France on Thursday to avoid automatic relegation, but they must now beat Belgium by a margin of three or more goals in Budapest on Sunday to avoid finishing bottom of the group. Belgium looks set for the relegation/promotion playoffs.
In other groups, Germany has already qualified for the quarterfinals, while Bosnia and Herzegovina must win both of their remaining matches to avoid relegation. The Netherlands and Hungary are locked in a tight battle for second place in League A Group 4, with their direct clash on Saturday set to decide the issue.
England’s interim coach, Steve Carsley, left captain Harry Kane on the bench for their 3-0 win over Greece on Thursday. The youthful team impressed, with Ollie Watkins scoring the opening goal. Carsley will hand over the reins to Thomas Tuchel at the end of the year, and the win has restored some confidence in the national team’s future prospects.
For Wales, the Nations League climax could mean the world. They are currently second in Group B4 and face Turkey and Iceland in their final two matches. A win over Turkey on Saturday would secure a place in either the promotion or relegation playoffs, while a loss would all but end their hopes of finishing top.
The expanded 48-team 2026 World Cup in Canada, Mexico, and the USA may seem like a long way off, but European qualifying begins next year. The Nations League results will play a crucial role in shaping Wales’ road to the tournament.